Project Summary

This project aims to assess the drought resilience of corn and soybean supply chains from producers in the Mississippi River Basin to transportation via the Gulf Coast and Pacific North-west. While previous research has focused on climate change effects on production agriculture, this study addresses a critical knowledge gap concerning the drought resilience of U.S. agri- cultural transportation systems. The vulnerability of the waterborne transportation system to extreme weather, exemplified by the 2022 droughts that undermined the navigability of the Mississippi River, has revealed the urgent need for this research. Our research will examine the drought repercussions on U.S. agricultural trade and food security, and analyze the impact of drought-induced transportation disruptions along the Mississippi River on crop prices and farm income. To achieve this, we will develop an innovative river-basin scale model to assess crop production resilience to droughts and model the Mississippi River streamflow during drought conditions. These insights will inform a pioneering multimodal network optimization model, incorporating machine learning and operations research, to evaluate the resilience of corn and soybean transportation systems and the impact on shipping costs. We will leverage novel production and transportation data and advanced analytical methods to shed light on the drought resilience of the Mississippi River system and evaluate the broader implications for agricultural shipments, trade, welfare, and global food security. This project will inform federal policies that prepare the nation’s food and transportation systems for the adverse effects of climate shocks, which will help to enhance market efficiency and performance.